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Al-Shabab in Somalia: Bullets and bombs can’t bury ideologies

The Somali government’s offensive against al-Shabab is faltering because of the divisive tactics deployed.

Somali security officers guard residents from the wreckage at the scene of an explosion of a bomb-rigged car that was parked on a road near the National Theatre in Hamarweyne district of Mogadishu, Somalia September 28, 2024. REUTERS/Feisal Omar

In August, Somalia’s Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre hosted a town-hall meeting in Mogadishu to commemorate the two-year anniversary of his cabinet’s formation. A central topic of discussion was the government’s ongoing offensive against al-Shabab, launched in late 2022. Barre highlighted the progress made, stating that government forces had reclaimed around 215 villages and towns from the militant group.

Despite the government’s military gains, its strategies have created new challenges, exacerbating instability and violence in the country rather than reducing it.

The Mistake of Arming Clan Militias

The government’s campaign against al-Shabab gained momentum after a deadly attack on a Mogadishu hotel in August 2022, which left 21 people dead. One of the key strategies implemented was arming tribal militias, known as “macawisley,” to support the Somali army. Initially, these militias helped drive al-Shabab from significant areas in the Hirshabelle and Galmudug states, earning praise from Somalia’s international partners.

However, the decision to arm specific clans, particularly those connected to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, deepened existing divisions in Somali society. Somalia is already a fractured country, with long-standing grievances dating back to the civil war. By favoring certain clans in the fight against al-Shabab, the government fueled tensions, leading to increased clan-based violence in the areas where al-Shabab had been ousted. Armed militias, instead of liberating civilians, often turned to terrorizing local populations, settling old disputes, and engaging in widespread banditry, including setting up illegal roadblocks.

The government, unable to control these militias, now faces threats from multiple armed groups, deepening the insecurity and undermining its efforts against al-Shabab.

Foreign Troop Deployment Backfires

Another controversial decision was the Somali government’s call for foreign military assistance. In February 2023, the leadership announced that troops from neighboring Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti would be deployed to assist in the final push against al-Shabab under “Operation Black Lion.” This move was met with skepticism from many Somalis, as foreign troops have been stationed in the country for over a decade, sparking widespread resentment. Al-Shabab originally rose in response to Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia in 2006, and its insurgency has since been fueled by the presence of foreign forces.

By advocating for more foreign troops, the Somali government inadvertently strengthened al-Shabab’s narrative that Somalia is under foreign occupation. This has only bolstered support for the group among certain segments of the Somali population.

Failing to Build National Consensus

The government’s divisive policies, including arming specific clans and inviting foreign troops, have failed to build a national consensus on how to address the al-Shabab threat. Instead of uniting the country, these actions have sidelined various stakeholders, diminishing support for the government’s war effort.

To make matters worse, President Mohamud’s push to amend the Somali constitution in 2023, which sought to expand his executive powers, sparked further controversy. Many political figures and ordinary Somalis opposed the changes, seeing them as self-serving. Despite public outcry, the Somali parliament approved the amendments, further alienating segments of the population and making it harder to gain broad support for the war against al-Shabab.

These missteps have played into al-Shabab’s hands, allowing the group to maintain influence and support. The group continues to operate a parallel government in many regions, collecting taxes, providing judicial services, and maintaining security. This has allowed al-Shabab to retain control over large swaths of territory, and in August 2023, it carried out a devastating attack on a military base in Owsweyne, killing over 100 soldiers.

The Path Forward

The current strategy is failing, and President Mohamud must take responsibility for the worsening security situation. To move forward, he needs to reconcile Somali society, build trust between clans, and initiate meaningful dialogue with his political opponents and, potentially, even al-Shabab.

After more than three decades of conflict, Somali society desperately needs peace. Continuing on the current path will only lead to more bloodshed and further destabilization.

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