The Mahama administration’s celebration of what it describes as a remarkable economic recovery is facing fresh scrutiny after a new independent policy review challenged the credibility of the government’s 2026 Mid-Year Budget, warning that beneath the impressive macroeconomic figures lies a troubling pattern of under-executed projects, revenue shortfalls and inconsistencies in official fiscal data.
A comprehensive review of the 2026 Budget Statement and Mid-Year Fiscal Policy by the Centre for Policy Studies (CPS), prepared by economists Dr. Adu Owusu Sarkodie, Dr. Prince Adjei, Dr. Jacob Novignon and Stephanie Anokyewa Tawiah, argues that although government has succeeded in restoring macroeconomic stability through fiscal discipline, many of its flagship programmes are falling behind schedule due to severe expenditure compression and weak budget execution.
The report comes at a time when the government has been highlighting falling inflation, improved economic growth, stronger foreign reserves and declining public debt as evidence that its economic reset agenda is yielding positive results.
However, the policy analysts caution that these achievements tell only part of the story.
According to the report, the government implemented an expenditure-led fiscal consolidation strategy that significantly reduced the budget deficit and borrowing requirements. While this has improved debt sustainability and strengthened macroeconomic stability, it has also left many Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) without sufficient funds to implement critical development projects.
The analysts disclosed that actual expenditure during the first half of 2026 fell substantially below what Parliament had approved. Capital expenditure, which finances roads, schools, hospitals and other infrastructure projects, recorded one of the biggest shortfalls.
Out of the GH¢36.6 billion programmed for capital spending in the first half of the year, only about GH¢22 billion was spent, leaving a financing gap of roughly GH¢14.4 billion. The report says this has slowed the implementation of government projects across several sectors.
The review further revealed that programme-critical expenditures covering infrastructure, grants to public institutions, social interventions and goods and services suffered a combined funding shortfall of more than GH¢20 billion during the first six months of 2026.
According to the researchers, this means that nearly one-third of planned government programmes could not be fully executed despite allocations made in the national budget.
The report argues that these implementation gaps are not new. It estimates that over the past one and a half years, government failed to execute approximately GH¢30.7 billion worth of programme-critical spending, resulting in delayed infrastructure projects and reduced service delivery across public institutions.
On the revenue front, the analysts observed that government failed to meet several key revenue targets despite introducing new tax compliance measures. VAT, oil revenue, excise duties, import duties, airport taxes and taxes from self-employed workers all underperformed compared to budget projections.
Overall, government recorded a revenue shortfall estimated at GH¢1.4 billion during the first half of the year.
The report questioned whether recent reforms—including artificial intelligence-driven customs valuation systems, VAT compliance initiatives and the Modified Taxation Scheme—were producing the expected improvements in domestic revenue mobilisation.
One of the most controversial observations made by the policy experts concerns inconsistencies within the Mid-Year Budget Review itself. The report points to conflicting expenditure figures appearing in different sections of the Finance Minister’s presentation, arguing that such discrepancies raise concerns about the reliability of official fiscal data.
According to the analysts, different pages of the budget review present varying figures for total expenditure and capital expenditure, creating uncertainty over the actual state of government finances.
They warned that the credibility of national economic planning depends heavily on the consistency and accuracy of budget data.
The review also examined the government’s flagship economic programmes, including the Big Push infrastructure initiative and the 24-Hour Economy programme.
While acknowledging that construction has commenced on dozens of Big Push projects, the analysts argue that government has yet to provide verifiable evidence supporting its claims of massive job creation.
The report says physical implementation has begun on several projects, but employment figures remain largely projections rather than verified payroll data.
Similarly, the report states that although over 300 entities have reportedly adopted aspects of the 24-Hour Economy initiative, there is little publicly available evidence demonstrating the number of permanent jobs created under the programme.
Several major industrial projects, including garment factories and agro-processing plants announced in the budget, remain largely at preparatory or investor-mobilisation stages.
The analysts nevertheless acknowledged that the Mahama administration has recorded notable macroeconomic gains. Inflation has declined significantly, fiscal deficits have narrowed, public debt has fallen, foreign exchange reserves have strengthened, and investor confidence has improved.
The Bank of Ghana has also maintained relative exchange rate stability while reducing the monetary policy rate to support economic activity.
The report further recognised improvements in Ghana’s external sector, including stronger current account balances, increased gold export earnings, reserve accumulation and renewed confidence in domestic bond markets. It also commended the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline, particularly its adherence to limits on central bank financing of budget deficits.
However, the economists insist that macroeconomic stability alone cannot deliver economic transformation unless government significantly improves budget execution.
They recommended stronger domestic revenue mobilisation, greater transparency in public spending, timely release of funds to implementing agencies and improved reporting on programme execution.
The report also urged the Ministry of Finance to publish regular updates comparing approved budgets with actual expenditure across all Ministries, Departments and Agencies to strengthen accountability.
According to the policy experts, Ghana has successfully laid the foundation for macroeconomic recovery, but sustaining that progress will depend on the government’s ability to convert impressive fiscal indicators into visible infrastructure, job creation and improved public services that ordinary Ghanaians can experience.
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