On November 5, voters in the United States will head to the polls to elect their next president. Originally set as a rematch of the 2020 election, the race shifted in July when President Joe Biden withdrew and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
The key question now is whether the U.S. will elect its first female president or if Donald Trump will secure a second term.
National Polls: Who’s Leading?
Kamala Harris currently holds a narrow lead over Donald Trump in the national polling averages. Prior to Biden’s exit, polls showed him trailing Trump, but Harris has gained momentum, establishing a small lead since she began campaigning.
A televised debate on September 10 between Harris and Trump drew over 67 million viewers. Snap polls after the debate indicated that most viewers felt Harris performed better. Following the debate, Harris saw a slight increase in her polling numbers, moving her lead from 2.5 percentage points to 2.9.
Despite these national numbers, the U.S. presidential election is decided by the Electoral College, not a popular vote, making key battleground states critical to the outcome.
Battleground States: Where the Election Will Be Decided
The race is extremely tight in seven battleground states, with less than one percentage point separating the candidates in several of them, including Pennsylvania, which is crucial due to its high number of electoral votes. Harris’s ability to win states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—Democratic strongholds that Trump flipped in 2016—will be central to her chances of victory.
Poll Methodology and Trustworthiness
The polling data comes from reputable sources, such as the website 538, which uses rigorous criteria to ensure the quality of polls. However, given how close the race is, it’s difficult to predict an outcome with certainty. Polls also underestimated Trump’s support in both 2016 and 2020, so caution is advised when interpreting results.
Ultimately, while polls give a general sense of where the race stands, the final result will hinge on voter turnout and developments in key battleground states.
Source: BBC News
